What did young Italians vote for in the 2013 elections?


Last week Italians voted for electing the new prime minister. These are the results:

Coalition’s Leader Chamber Senate
Pierluigi BERSANI 29.54% 31.63%
Silvio BERLUSCONI 29.18% 30.71%
Beppe GRILLO 25.55% 23.79%
Mario MONTI 10.56% 9.13%
Antonio INGROIA 2.55% 1.79%
Oscar GIANNINO 1.12% 0.90%
others 1.50% 2.05%

As you might know, in Italy the Parliament is consists of two houses: the Senate of the Republic and the Chamber of Deputies.

For the upper house (the Senate) only citizens aged 25 or over can vote. This law has an important and interesting consequence: it’s possible to estimate what young people voted simply subtracting the number of votes received by a party in the upper house to the ones received in the lower house.

I wrote “estimation” because I had to make some adjustments to the results as for example some parties didn’t run for both houses or for example citizens are allowed to vote a different party in each house. The details of the calculations are available on googledocs at this link.

The results are not completely surprising:

Coalition’s Leader Young citizens (18-24)
Pierluigi BERSANI 13.60%
Silvio BERLUSCONI 17.20%
Beppe GRILLO 36.75%
Mario MONTI 21.46%
Antonio INGROIA 6.91%
Oscar GIANNINO 2.08%

Not surprising that Beppe Grillo with his Five Star Movement would dominate the elections of the future. His party is based only on the internet, he has no hierarchy but it’s directly connected to the territory. Also the selection for the candidates has been made online.

It’s instead surprising the result that Mario Monti would achieve, he would double his votes, probably for the very good image (opposed to Berlusconi’s one) that he gave during his short administration. He might have been penalised  in the normal election for having raised the taxes, especially of the Council tax, but young people probably haven’t been affected by that since the majority of them still lives with the parents.

The two main parties in the election, are respectively on the forth and third position: despite his age and his criminal record, Berlusconi has 17.20% of the votes while Bersani has to renew his party a lot because the future of the Democratic Party is not that bright.